January 2014 -
Baseball
We provide agents with powerful statistical analysis and research for arbitration, baseball free agency and long-term deal negotiations. Call Steve Fall at
404-447-1861 for more information.
The Difference Maker
Austin Jackson owns an impressive resume as a second-time arbitration eligible player. Although his core stats dropped in 2013 from their
outstanding 2012 levels, he was a huge factor in the Tigers reaching the playoffs.
Based on his 3.1 WAR (according to Fangraphs), Detroit would not have won the AL Central - or even made the postseason - without
his contributions.
This demonstrates Jackson's tremendous marginal value to his team , which impacted "the recent performance record of the Club" described
in the CBA's Arbitration Criteria.
The Tigers needed the full extent of Jackson's contributions. One fewer victory would have forced them to play the 92-70 Indians in a
tiebreaker. And a 91-win season would have put them into a wild card tiebreaker.
Impact Stats: Plays that Change the Game
All home runs are not created equal. Some change game outcomes, while others - like a solo shot in a 10-0 game - have virtually
no effect.
Many attempts to quantify the impact of home runs - or any other offensive achievement - fall short. Game-winning and walk-off hits
are dramatic, but some occur when teams already have a 99 percent chance of winning.
For this reason, The Sports Resource created "Impact Stats," which are plays that change a team's odds of winning by 30 percent or more.
Among the 4,661 home runs hit during the 2013 season, 411 met this criteria, or less than nine percent. Here are the MLB leaders.
Starling Marte's five Impact Home Runs are remarkable considering he only hit 12 total. Marte's arbitration-eligible teammate Travis Snider
also shined in this area despite limited playing time. Three of Snider's five homers fell into this category. He added two game-changing
singles that also increased the Pirates odds of winning by over 30 percent.
Why Context is Vital in Arbitration
Eric Hosmer hit 14 home runs each season from 2011 through 2013. Even with home run rates dropping in recent seasons, that
still doesn't sound like much. But it is impressive after accounting for context.
Hosmer's home park Kauffman Stadium depresses left-handed power. In his three seasons, it decreased the lefty home run
rate by 25 percent.
Over the past 25 years, only two other left-handed batting Royals hit 14+ homers in three consecutive seasons
(Johnny Damon and Alex Gordon). Hosmer did this in his first three seasons. No lefty hitter ever achieved
this feat in franchise history, and Hosmer is the first Kansas City hitter of any type to do it since Bo Jackson in 1987-89.
The Sports Resource
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Note:
All players used in this newsletter and our sample charts are selected at
random. None of the information comes from actual projects for agents. All projects and conversations
are confidential.
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