July 2013 -
Baseball
We provide agents with powerful statistical analysis and research for arbitration, baseball free agency and long-term deal negotiations. Call Steve Fall at
512-852-8193 for more information.
Quality and Quantity
Setup men play a major role in team success, but the primary statistical tools to evaluate them have shortcomings. The hold stat equally
rewards pitchers whether they record one out in the sixth inning or pitch a scoreless eighth. Relievers can also surrender runs and earn
a hold, as long as they maintain the lead.
We created "quality holds" by adding stricter criteria to the holds statistic. In addition to meeting hold requirements, pitchers must
work at least one full inning and not allow an earned run to score.
Mark Melancon led all Major League pitchers in quality holds (through
July 24). All but two of his 26 holds met the criteria. While other relievers had 20-plus holds this season, nobody else had more
than 18 quality holds. Melancon, set to be first-time arbitration eligible this offseason, can become just the third pitcher in the past
10 seasons to record 30 quality holds.
The Sports Resource invented several creative metrics to help agents gain an edge for free agency and arbitration. Since long
explanations can confuse arbitration panels, we focus on relevant statistics that drive home your key points. Contact us at 512-852-8193 or
steve.fall@sportsresource.net to hear the many ways we apply analytics to
increase your bargaining power.
Winning Time
Both Freddie Freeman and Pedro Alvarez have turned in strong 2013 seasons, and should become first-time arbitration eligible
this offseason.
Freeman held the advantage in OPS and weighted on-base average (wOBA), while Alvarez had a higher WAR (through July 24). But
when it comes to win probability added, Freeman led by a significant margin.
Win probability measures how much players impact their team's chances of winning. The odds of a team winning change on every event
within a baseball game. Win probability added (WPA) measures each player's role in these fluctuations. While late-inning heroics
capture more media attention, WPA reveals that game-changing plays occur in any inning, even the first.
Freeman's sensational 3.13 win probability added figure quantifies how much he impacted the Braves' first half success.
Freeman ranked among the Major League leaders in WPA. Alvarez had a solid figure, which he can increase significantly by the end
of the season. One or two game-changing plays, like a game-winning grand slam, can cause WPA to rise dramatically.
The Sports Resource Around the Web
The Sports
Analytics Blog and Tao of
Sports Podcast recently interviewed Steve Fall. Both detailed how The Sports Resource
started and became the go-to sports analytics consultancy for MLB and NBA agents.
The Sports Resource
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Note:
All players used in this newsletter and our sample charts are selected at
random. None of the information comes from actual projects for agents. All projects and conversations
are confidential.
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