blog   facebook   tweeter   in
baseball basketball football

May 2012 - Basketball

Our packages feature a persuasive combination of statistics, visualizations, descriptions and analysis. Agents find them invaluable for NBA Free Agency and draft preparation. Call Steve Fall at 512-852-8193 to discuss your needs.

Spreading the Floor

Ersan Ilyasova had an excellent 2011-12 season. No NBA player before matched his combination of three-point accuracy and rebounding.

Ilyasova became the first player in NBA history to shoot 45 percent from three-point range and grab 10+ rebounds per 40 minutes. In fact, his 12.8 rebounds per 40 minutes far surpassed the next closest 45 percent three-point shooter: Mike Miller had 7.4 in 2009-10.

Ilyasova’s long-range accuracy opened up the interior for his Milwaukee teammates. The Bucks attempted 23.2 free throws per 48 minutes with Ilyasova on the court compared to just 19.4 when he sat out (see chart).

The Bucks weren’t the same team when Ilyasova went to the bench. They averaged 101.6 points per 48 minutes when he was on the court versus 95.9 when he sat.

Teams that struggle with spot-up shot attempts and on the boards would benefit from Ilyasova’s skill set. The Nets, Kings, Wizards and Bobcats all need help in these two areas.

Ilyasova also still has plenty of upside. He posted a 20.55 Hollinger PER in his age-24 season. The list of active players who did this at the same age and approximate height is impressive: Al Horford, Josh Smith, Andrei Kirilenko and Emeka Okafor.

Looking Back and Looking Ahead

Once a player emerges like Ryan Anderson, it’s easy to look back and see how he did it. The challenge is identifying the traits and statistics of a potential breakout player in advance.

Unlike most successful long-range shooters, Anderson posted excellent rebound numbers as well. In the past five NBA Drafts, he joined Kevin Durant as the only players to surpass 20 points, 10 rebounds and 2 made three-pointers per 40 minutes in their final college season. Durant was over a year younger and a far better all-around talent, but Anderson’s strong showing in these categories boded well for his future.

Among the top 100 prospects in this draft, only one reached these levels. Nonetheless, Jae Crowder hasn’t gotten much draft buzz. Despite his ability to knock down outside shots, Crowder doesn’t remind anybody of Anderson. Rather than finding specific comps to project prospects, it’s revealing to find characteristics that match an NBA player or players.

Crowder combines his shooting skill with rugged defense. His 3.05 steals per 40 minutes led all 2012 draft prospects. In the past five drafts, only Iman Shumpert (3.43) and Mario Chalmers (3.32) surpassed him. Although he projects as a three, Crowder can defend bigs. That and his outside shooting will make him a force in smaller lineups. His stats in many categories more closely resemble Shane Battier than Anderson.

Especially since Crowder will be younger on draft night than Battier was, his numbers stack up well. He’s one of the youngest seniors – even younger than some juniors – in the upcoming draft.

Crowder is also a great finisher down low and on the break. He hit over 60 percent of his two-point shot attempts in 2011-12. Only one other prospect (Jeremy Lamb) made 50+ threes and shot over 60 percent inside the line.


The Sports Resource Blog, Twitter and Facebook

The Sports Resource Blog features posts of interest to sports agents. "Like" The Sports Resource Facebook page to receive insightful statistical information. You can also follow Steve Fall on Twitter at


Note: All players used in this newsletter and our sample charts are selected at random. None of the information comes from actual projects for agents. All projects and conversations are confidential.

baseball   basketball   football
request btn