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May 2013 - Basketball

Our packages feature a persuasive combination of statistics, charts, descriptions and analysis. Agents find them invaluable for recruiting college players, NBA Draft preparation and free agency. Call Steve Fall at 512-852-8193 to discuss your needs.

Playing Off the Stars

Both James Harden and Carmelo Anthony turned in remarkable 2012-13 seasons. In addition to numerous other achievements, they both averaged more than 8 free throw attempts and 2 made three-pointers per 40 minutes. Although players had done this before, what made Harden and Anthony’s unique is that their teams excelled as well.

The 13 previous players to match this feat led their teams to an average record of 35-47. Both the Knicks (54-28) and Rockets (45-37) far surpassed them, and ranked among the NBA’s top teams in offensive efficiency (3rd & 6th) this season.

What made Harden and Anthony’s clubs more successful? Much of the credit goes to their teammates for sensational three-point shooting, which made them almost unstoppable triple threats.

Harden averaged 6.1 assists per 40 minutes, an exceptional rate for an elite scorer. While Anthony averaged 2.8 assists/40, an amazing 58.5 percent of his assists went for three-pointers (100 of 171). Harden shined in this area as well, passing for threes with 188 of his 455 assists (41.3%). Having great shooters spotting up certainly impacts those numbers.

Loading the roster with three-point marksmen also benefited the Heat this season. Their rate of made threes per game by players besides LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh soared (see table). The team went from sixth in offensive efficiency in 2011-12 to first this season, and posted a much better regular season record.

This and related analysis provides powerful evidence for agents representing strong three-point shooters in the draft and free agency. The importance of these players grows every season. No team had ever made 850 threes until the 2012-13 Rockets and Knicks. At this rate, especially given their success, we’ll see more teams go down this path.

Analytics and Draft Night Dreams

Our packages answer questions with analytics. Can your college two guard client excel at the point? Will a go-to-guy expand his game at the next level – to force turnovers as part of an NBA second unit? These answers aren’t usually easy to find, but we specialize in doing just that.

Clubs are looking for revealing research, and we know how to make your client’s draft package stand out. In a Grantland interview during the MIT Sports Analytics Conference, former Thunder consultant Ben Alamar talked about the club making “an analytics-supported decision” to draft Russell Westbrook. At the same conference, Daryl Morey spoke about his goal to select “high variance players” in the 2012 Draft.

Draft Night is about dreams, but also disappointment. For every player that rises, another slips. We will tell your player’s story – driven by powerful analytics – to help their draft stock.

Visualizing Scoring vs. Age

Data visualization tools make it possible to quickly analyze key trends, such as this one. We highlighted three high-scoring players for their age among the top 2013 NBA Draft prospects: Erick Green, BJ Young, and Anthony Bennett.

The Sports Resource Blog, Twitter and Facebook

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Note: All players used in this newsletter and our sample charts are selected at random. None of the information comes from actual projects for agents. All projects and conversations are confidential.

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